Catholics for Kerry

Saturday, September 04, 2004

Bush Bounce?

Both Time (54-43) and Newsweek (52-41) have polls out showing a sizeable Bush bounce. Via dkos, there is a interesting discussion about the Newsweek poll internals which show the following:

374 Republicans (plus or minus 6)
303 Democrats (plus or minus 6)
300 Independents (plus or minus 6)

on dkos somenotes that this amounts to:

38.3% Republicans
31.0% Democrats
30.7% Independents

The problem is that according to Pew, voter registration ID is at:

Dem -- 33%
Rep -- 29%
Ind -- 38

And as someone points out: "So, Republicans are over-represented by almost 10% in the Newsweek poll, Dems under by 2%, and Independents under by over 7%."

Update:
Other polls from similar time frame

Zogby: Bush 46, Kerry 44
ARG: Bush 48, Kerry 47
Rassmussen: Bush 49, Kerry 45
Economist: Bush 45, Kerry 45

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