Catholics for Kerry

Tuesday, November 02, 2004

President G.W.Bush wins???

Still open question, IA machines are down, election workers "fatigued", OH has a few thousand ballots yet to count that could very well give Kerry a win. However, it is very unlikely. I do think Kerry needs to follow the process in OH which is to wait for all the votes to be counted and then wait the 11 days for the provisional ballots to be counted. After that, if we are short, then I suspect he will and we all will be ready to call it a day.

The Catholic numbers are what's going to be interesting here to many of us observers of the Catholic church. Kerry, according to (unreliable) exit polls won the Catholic vote in Wisconsin 52-48, splitting the White Catholic vote there, 50-50. I haven't looked at other states, but I imagine a similar result. This tentatively means then the Catholic issues did not hurt Kerry in the upper midwest. In PA, Kerry won the Catholic vote 52-48, but lost the White Catholic vote, 49-51. (All this tentative). Either way, the Catholic issues were a wash. It still is all split down the middle.

The implications for the Catholic Church are yet to be seen and will be much discussed.

One good thing for the moderate and liberal Catholics, is that this whole election process brought about unprecedented organization. It is unclear if this organization can survive the dissappointment of a Kerry defeat, but I think it will.

The RNC has clearly won the battle for Catholic control. They spoke the right language, but I still believe they lack the right heart. It is yet to be seen if the Church will now absorb Bush's political mandate and make it it's own. I suspect this Bush result will embolden the conservatives nationwide and their agenda. The question is how the moderates and liberals would react. I suppose we'll see how it all plays out.

Winners? President Bush--even if he loses in a recount, he won the popular vote. I think it is a sad state of affairs and a sad day for our world, but it is the will of the people and we accept.
--the Catholic moderates and left: we win because we are now better organized and have been emboldened to articulate our differences with the conservatives. There is no reason to think we'll stop here. We are moving on the right track.
--the Catholic right:they win because their candidate wins and because the nation overwhelmingly rejected gay marriage, and conservative values won the day. But unless the Bishops step in, which I don't think they are capable of, there'll be a hard clash between liberals and conservatives moving forward.

Losers?
--Senator Kerry, for a great man, one who would have made an exceptional president, he has now been demonized by the Right in characteristic conservative fashion. History in the long run will be kinder to him. (of course if he wins OH, all this changes--unlikely)
--the Catholic moderates and left:conservatives are "merciless" and will do everything to whip us in line. We will fight back of course, but many of us will have to decide if we want to remain in the Church structure or tribalize on the margins. The conservatives definitely would not tolerate dissent in their structure. There will be no easy way to be a Catholic liberal or moderate in the next four years, given the present mood of the nation.

Either way, "In all things give thanks."

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